Market Outlook: Dollar Rejected at Resistance as Gold Consolidates and Bitcoin Weakens

Markets enter the week with attention shifting toward US Unemployment Claims on Thursday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, alongside potential headline volatility from scheduled remarks by President Trump mid-week. While no major CPI or payroll release is due, positioning across the US dollar, gold, and Bitcoin suggests that reactions at key technical levels may define the tone.

US Dollar Index (DXY) — Rejection at Breakdown Zone

Market Regime: Broad consolidation within a larger downtrend

Bias: Bearish unless 98.0 is reclaimed

The broader trend in DXY remains bearish following a strong prior decline that transitioned into a wide consolidation range. Price recently broke below the lower boundary of that range and rebounded, but the recovery has so far appeared corrective rather than structural.

Importantly, DXY has already retested the 97.9–98.0 zone and faced rejection. The index failed to hold above this level, reinforcing the lower-high structure and signaling that bullish momentum remains limited.

As long as price remains below 98.0, the recent rebound may be viewed as a bearish retest, with potential room toward intermediate support at 96.5-96.8 and possibly the lower demand zone near 95.5-95.8. A sustained daily close above 98.2–98.4 would weaken the continuation thesis and open space toward 99.4-99.5, though that would still represent range expansion rather than confirmed trend reversal.

With PPI and political headlines ahead, volatility may increase, but structurally, the dollar remains capped at resistance within a broader bearish framework.

Key Technical Zones:

• Intermediate Support: 96.5–96.8

• Lower Support: 95.5–95.8

• Resistance: 97.9–98.0

• Higher Resistance: 99.4–99.5

Gold (XAU/USD) — Consolidating Within Value

Market Regime: Wide consolidation after a strong upward impulse 

Bias: Slightly bullish within range

Gold remains in a digestion phase following its earlier rally. Instead of trending aggressively higher, price is rotating between defined support and resistance zones, suggesting a balanced environment rather than a confirmed reversal.

Because gold is sensitive to dollar direction, its next move may depend largely on whether DXY breaks above resistance or fails at the upper boundary.

A dollar rejection could allow gold to retest resistance near 5,250–5,300, with potential extension toward 5,460–5,600 if momentum builds. Conversely, sustained dollar strength could pressure gold back toward support around 5,080–5,120, with deeper support near 4,840–4,880.

For now, the broader structure continues to favor mild upside rotation within range rather than immediate downside continuation.

Key Technical Zones:

• Support 1: 5,080–5,120

• Support 2: 4,840–4,880

• Resistance 1: 5,250–5,300

• Resistance 2: 5,460–5,600

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — Relief Rallies vs. Broader Downtrend

Market Regime: Downtrend with corrective rebounds

Bias: Bearish unless resistance is reclaimed

Bitcoin continues to trade within a structurally bearish framework marked by lower highs and reactive rebounds. Recent selling pressure pushed price sharply lower, leaving near-term resistance at 67,000–68,000, while price is now approaching the key support zone at 60,000–62,000.

A higher resistance area remains at 71,000–72,000. Until these resistance levels are reclaimed decisively, upside moves are likely to be viewed as relief rallies rather than confirmed reversals.

Crypto markets remain sensitive to liquidity expectations and dollar strength. If US PPI reinforces dollar strength, downside pressure could resume. A softer dollar reaction may trigger short-covering rallies, but structural confirmation of recovery would require a sustained break above resistance.

Key Technical Zones:

• Support 1: 60,000–62,000

• Support 2: 50,000–55,000

• Resistance 1: 67,000–68,000

• Resistance 2: 71,000–72,000

Key Takeaways for Traders

The dollar has already retested and rejected a key breakdown zone within a broader bearish structure. Gold remains in consolidation with a slight upside tilt, while Bitcoin continues to trade under structural pressure.

With PPI and political headlines ahead, volatility may expand, but the edge likely lies in observing reactions at defined resistance and support levels rather than attempting to predict the data outcome.